On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
RE: Insight - The Dems & Dirty Tricks ** Internal Use Only - Pls Do Not Forward **
| Email-ID | 339396 |
|---|---|
| Date | 2008-11-07 14:45:50 |
| From | howerton@stratfor.com |
| To | burton@stratfor.com, secure@stratfor.com |
Well, look at it this way. The Dems quit pretending and admitted to
themselves that to win it you have to get off your high horse and play
dirty when you have to. And they won.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Friday, November 07, 2008 7:41 AM
To: secure@stratfor.com
Subject: Insight - The Dems & Dirty Tricks ** Internal Use Only - Pls Do
Not Forward **
** Internal Use Only - Pls Do Not Forward **
1) The black Dems were caught stuffing the ballot boxes in Philly and Ohio
as reported the night of the election and Sen. McCain chose not to
fight. The matter is not dead inside the party. It now becomes a matter
of sequence now as to how and when to "out".
2) It appears the Dems "made a donation" to Rev. Jesse (no, they would
never do that!) to keep his yap shut after his diatribe about the Jews and
Israel. A little bird told me it was a "nice six-figure donation". This
also becomes a matter of how and when to out.
3) The hunt is on for the sleezy Russian money into O-mans coffers. A
smoking gun has already been found. Will get more on this when the time
is right. My source was too giddy to continue. Can you say Clinton and
ChiCom funny money? This also becomes a matter of how and when to out.
themselves that to win it you have to get off your high horse and play
dirty when you have to. And they won.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Friday, November 07, 2008 7:41 AM
To: secure@stratfor.com
Subject: Insight - The Dems & Dirty Tricks ** Internal Use Only - Pls Do
Not Forward **
** Internal Use Only - Pls Do Not Forward **
1) The black Dems were caught stuffing the ballot boxes in Philly and Ohio
as reported the night of the election and Sen. McCain chose not to
fight. The matter is not dead inside the party. It now becomes a matter
of sequence now as to how and when to "out".
2) It appears the Dems "made a donation" to Rev. Jesse (no, they would
never do that!) to keep his yap shut after his diatribe about the Jews and
Israel. A little bird told me it was a "nice six-figure donation". This
also becomes a matter of how and when to out.
3) The hunt is on for the sleezy Russian money into O-mans coffers. A
smoking gun has already been found. Will get more on this when the time
is right. My source was too giddy to continue. Can you say Clinton and
ChiCom funny money? This also becomes a matter of how and when to out.
On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
| Email-ID | 391555 |
|---|---|
| Date | 2009-11-06 23:08:21 |
| From | Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com |
| To | burton@stratfor.com, mongoven@stratfor.com |
Maybe, but he's choked on the national stage a few times now. I can't get
past his smile...makes him look sleazy.
burton@stratfor.com wrote:
Bobby Jindel? He's some sort of Indian.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Anya Alfano
Date: Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:58:58 -0500
To:
Cc: Bartholomew Mongoven
Subject: Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
Tim Pawlenty is about as close as the GOP gets to a sharp, young and
eligible governor.
burton@stratfor.com wrote:
Romney can't make it. Mormons are viewed as Voo Doo.
We need a sharp young Governor.
I also like Michelle Bachman.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Bartholomew Mongoven"
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 16:52:13 -0500
To: 'Anya Alfano';
Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
Pawlenty is good.
I think Romney could do it if he is himself. He was as badly handled
in 2008 as Al Gore was in 2000. It should have been his nomination
and he screwed it all up.
Newt might actually pull the trigger.
I think Huckabee could do it just to piss off people like me.
I would tell Jeb that his time came and went when Katrina went under
water.
Frist would love to do it, but it'll take time for him to get up and
running.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 4:46 PM
To: burton@stratfor.com
Cc: Bartholomew Mongoven
Subject: Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
The neocons on top of my hill all want Tim Pawlenty.
burton@stratfor.com wrote:
The GOP folks I talk to are pushing Jeb Bush. I think that is a
mistake. Who else is out there?
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Bartholomew Mongoven"
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 16:39:03 -0500
To: 'Anya Alfano'
Cc: 'Fred Burton'
Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
Depends on where you are. In your neck of the woods, people tend to
think no one can do the right thing in Washington. They think the
world here is so corrupt that progress will always be stifled by the
moneyed interests. (Of course, the fact is that on domestic policy,
it's like foreign policy -- the president can have his ideals but
there are very few things he can do that won't screw up the
country. So he doesn't do them. Watch climate, for instance. It's
not corporate lobbying holding him from a deal, it's China. He
won't commit economic suicide just to make environmentalists happy.
The environmentalists don't think it's suicide, so they think Obama
has sold out. It's sad really.)
I think Mrs. P is far closer to a D.C. view of things. The liberal
factions in DC think Obama is being a pussy. They don't want a
climate deal that kills the US economy and gives everything to the
Chinese, but they want someone to stand up to the Chinese and say
"this is the way it's going to be." From a West Coast
liberal perspective, that's inflaming rivalry and inviting
conflict. From an East Coast perspective, that's the only way to
get a climate bill. Right now, he's not going to commit suicide
(Bay Area approach) but he's not going to back the Chinese down
(Mrs. P) either.
Obama needs to get in a fight and do something really mean and
unfair to the right. (Gays in the military/revoke Don't Ask Don't
tell). He's afraid of the backlash. He could also tell the banks to
go screw themselves. Either way, he needs to do something that says
he doesn't care about losing political capital. By front loading
health care and climate, he made being politically safe his primary
objective. He doesn't think he can afford to piss people off until
those two are done. (Back to Emanuel, whose job is to tell him that
he shouldn't front load all of his controversial proposals.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 4:17 PM
To: Bartholomew Mongoven
Cc: 'Fred Burton'
Subject: Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
Bart, do you believe Mrs. P's thoughts are fairly mainstream among
Obama supporters, or are most still fairly content? I feel like I
hear comments similar to Mrs. P all the time on other various
issues, but my viewpoint is probably fairly skewed. (Marx himself
couldn't satisfy half the people here.)
Bartholomew Mongoven wrote:
I don't disagree that Biden is a weasel. I think Emanuel is
emasculating Obama by selling him on clever Clintonesque
tactics. I would love to see Obama with someone more principled
and less clever as Chief of Staff. He needs a James Baker and he
has a Donald Regan. At least Clinton had Panetta at first to tell
him when to not be a pussy. Without Panetta Clinton was just a
great tactician but he didn't get anything done (except get
re-elected).
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 3:58 PM
To: 'Bartholomew Mongoven'; 'Anya Alfano'
Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
She blames Obama and Biden. I dropped Emanuel into the soup and
she said that he would be added to her list. She believes Biden
is weasel and Obama is a pussy. I want her to fund my bid for
Congress. Yes, I can be bought.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Bartholomew Mongoven [mailto:mongoven@stratfor.com]
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 10:55 AM
To: 'Fred Burton'; 'Anya Alfano'
Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
I remember that she had misgivings about supporting him during the
primaries. I assume that rather than support a challenger, she'll
just sit out 2012 (unless Obama finds a spine). I'd love to know
if there was any talk about whether she and her set think it's him
or his staff (esp. Emanuel) who is making his presidency so
muddled so far.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 9:02 AM
To: 'Bartholomew Mongoven'; 'Anya Alfano'
Subject: FW: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
Mrs. P
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 8:01 AM
To: 'Secure List'
Subject: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
From a billionaire Democratic fundraiser --
The billionaire (who also funds ACORN) is greatly disappointed
over Obama's "weakness and wimpyness" towards China ("Fred, they
only understand strength") and Obama's failure to meet with the
Dhali Lama. The fundraiser stated he/she was personally
disappointed ("betrayed") for helping Obama get into The White
House and does not intend to support Obama next election, absent a
drastic turn-around.
past his smile...makes him look sleazy.
burton@stratfor.com wrote:
Bobby Jindel? He's some sort of Indian.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Anya Alfano
Date: Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:58:58 -0500
To:
Cc: Bartholomew Mongoven
Subject: Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
Tim Pawlenty is about as close as the GOP gets to a sharp, young and
eligible governor.
burton@stratfor.com wrote:
Romney can't make it. Mormons are viewed as Voo Doo.
We need a sharp young Governor.
I also like Michelle Bachman.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Bartholomew Mongoven"
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 16:52:13 -0500
To: 'Anya Alfano'
Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
Pawlenty is good.
I think Romney could do it if he is himself. He was as badly handled
in 2008 as Al Gore was in 2000. It should have been his nomination
and he screwed it all up.
Newt might actually pull the trigger.
I think Huckabee could do it just to piss off people like me.
I would tell Jeb that his time came and went when Katrina went under
water.
Frist would love to do it, but it'll take time for him to get up and
running.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 4:46 PM
To: burton@stratfor.com
Cc: Bartholomew Mongoven
Subject: Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
The neocons on top of my hill all want Tim Pawlenty.
burton@stratfor.com wrote:
The GOP folks I talk to are pushing Jeb Bush. I think that is a
mistake. Who else is out there?
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Bartholomew Mongoven"
Date: Fri, 6 Nov 2009 16:39:03 -0500
To: 'Anya Alfano'
Cc: 'Fred Burton'
Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
Depends on where you are. In your neck of the woods, people tend to
think no one can do the right thing in Washington. They think the
world here is so corrupt that progress will always be stifled by the
moneyed interests. (Of course, the fact is that on domestic policy,
it's like foreign policy -- the president can have his ideals but
there are very few things he can do that won't screw up the
country. So he doesn't do them. Watch climate, for instance. It's
not corporate lobbying holding him from a deal, it's China. He
won't commit economic suicide just to make environmentalists happy.
The environmentalists don't think it's suicide, so they think Obama
has sold out. It's sad really.)
I think Mrs. P is far closer to a D.C. view of things. The liberal
factions in DC think Obama is being a pussy. They don't want a
climate deal that kills the US economy and gives everything to the
Chinese, but they want someone to stand up to the Chinese and say
"this is the way it's going to be." From a West Coast
liberal perspective, that's inflaming rivalry and inviting
conflict. From an East Coast perspective, that's the only way to
get a climate bill. Right now, he's not going to commit suicide
(Bay Area approach) but he's not going to back the Chinese down
(Mrs. P) either.
Obama needs to get in a fight and do something really mean and
unfair to the right. (Gays in the military/revoke Don't Ask Don't
tell). He's afraid of the backlash. He could also tell the banks to
go screw themselves. Either way, he needs to do something that says
he doesn't care about losing political capital. By front loading
health care and climate, he made being politically safe his primary
objective. He doesn't think he can afford to piss people off until
those two are done. (Back to Emanuel, whose job is to tell him that
he shouldn't front load all of his controversial proposals.)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 4:17 PM
To: Bartholomew Mongoven
Cc: 'Fred Burton'
Subject: Re: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
Bart, do you believe Mrs. P's thoughts are fairly mainstream among
Obama supporters, or are most still fairly content? I feel like I
hear comments similar to Mrs. P all the time on other various
issues, but my viewpoint is probably fairly skewed. (Marx himself
couldn't satisfy half the people here.)
Bartholomew Mongoven wrote:
I don't disagree that Biden is a weasel. I think Emanuel is
emasculating Obama by selling him on clever Clintonesque
tactics. I would love to see Obama with someone more principled
and less clever as Chief of Staff. He needs a James Baker and he
has a Donald Regan. At least Clinton had Panetta at first to tell
him when to not be a pussy. Without Panetta Clinton was just a
great tactician but he didn't get anything done (except get
re-elected).
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 3:58 PM
To: 'Bartholomew Mongoven'; 'Anya Alfano'
Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
She blames Obama and Biden. I dropped Emanuel into the soup and
she said that he would be added to her list. She believes Biden
is weasel and Obama is a pussy. I want her to fund my bid for
Congress. Yes, I can be bought.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Bartholomew Mongoven [mailto:mongoven@stratfor.com]
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 10:55 AM
To: 'Fred Burton'; 'Anya Alfano'
Subject: RE: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
I remember that she had misgivings about supporting him during the
primaries. I assume that rather than support a challenger, she'll
just sit out 2012 (unless Obama finds a spine). I'd love to know
if there was any talk about whether she and her set think it's him
or his staff (esp. Emanuel) who is making his presidency so
muddled so far.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 9:02 AM
To: 'Bartholomew Mongoven'; 'Anya Alfano'
Subject: FW: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
Mrs. P
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Fred Burton [mailto:burton@stratfor.com]
Sent: Friday, November 06, 2009 8:01 AM
To: 'Secure List'
Subject: Insight - China/Tibet/Obama
From a billionaire Democratic fundraiser --
The billionaire (who also funds ACORN) is greatly disappointed
over Obama's "weakness and wimpyness" towards China ("Fred, they
only understand strength") and Obama's failure to meet with the
Dhali Lama. The fundraiser stated he/she was personally
disappointed ("betrayed") for helping Obama get into The White
House and does not intend to support Obama next election, absent a
drastic turn-around.
On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2 - one more thought
| Email-ID | 287965 |
|---|---|
| Date | 2009-10-01 17:06:58 |
| To | mfriedman@stratfor.com, gfriedman@stratfor.com, oconnor@stratfor.com, scott.stewart@stratfor.com, darryl.oconnor@stratfor.com, eisenstein@stratfor.com, friedman@att.blackberry.net, peter.zeihan@stratfor.com, maverick.fisher@stratfor.com, Richard.parker@stratfor.com, grant.perry@stratfor.com |
One other thing -- from a branding perspective if we're serious about
Quality, Status and Mystique I think showing too much of our inner
workings devalues our Mystique. People don't know how we collect our
intelligence and that's one of the cool, mysterious things about STRATFOR.
Seeing raw intelligence come in would be cool for a few weeks but then it
would become another expected product and we lose our mystique a little on
source collection.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Meredith Friedman
Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2009 9:55 AM
To: scott stewart; friedman@att.blackberry.net; 'Darryl O'Connor'; 'Aaric
Eisenstein'; 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George Friedman';
maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
Thanks, Stick, for laying this out. I have to say I support your position
on this. As you mentioned yesterday, our sources would be talking to
Reuters or other news organizations if they wanted their ideas published
directly (even as anonymous sources) but they are not - they are talking
to us because they know we protect not only their identity but use what
they say in a careful way in our analysis or as sitreps.
On the reverse side, if we blacked out every category of our source
descriptions and coding it would be silly and make people wonder if we
weren't making them up ourselves. We already show a lot of leg by sharing
our internal intelligence guidance with our customers - that is sexy and
something that makes us unique. I agree we would lose some of our best
sources for intelligence if we began publishing what they send us in raw
format no matter how carefully we try to disguise their identity.
Meredith
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: scott stewart [mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com]
Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2009 9:43 AM
To: friedman@att.blackberry.net; 'Darryl O'Connor'; 'Aaric Eisenstein';
'Peter Zeihan'; 'George Friedman'; maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'; 'Meredith Friedman'
Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
OK, I have taken 24 hours to relax, calm down and think about this
concept.
Here are my thoughts.
1) This may be a decent marketing idea, but in my opinion it is a terrible
intelligence idea. In addition to the point I made yesterday about many of
our sources not wanting to be paraded into the spotlight, it is also
important to remember that we have sources in places like Iran, Syria,
China and Russia who could be traced if we allowed that much of their
writings and information to be published in raw form. Allowing an
intelligence service to isolate all the source reporting coming from that
country would be very attractive to them and they would certainly attempt
to determine who we are talking to, and who is talking to us, on a regular
basis.
We have an ethical responsible to do our best to protect our people - and
from a purely selfish perspective if one of our people is identified and
then whacked, arrested, or cowed by the authorities into no longer
reporting, we can quickly lose an asset that have taken us years to
develop. This will hurt our publishing operations, and will not be
sustainable in the long run. We need to protect our most valuable -- and
in most cases, our most sensitive -- sources for the future of the
company.
2) We could do something like this with less-sensitive sources who agree
to be published directly, but those less-sensitive sources will lack the
sex appeal that Aaric is looking for and that will make this a rather
bland product offering.
3) Based on 1 and 2, it is my recommendation that we continue to handle
insight as it is. That is, using it to inform our analysis and to make
sure our published work remains very strong, and our CIS customers stay
informed. We can also continue to use critical pieces of insight directly
as the basis for sitreps.
I have calmed down from yesterday, but I still feel very strongly that
continuing to handle insight as we do is the best course of action for us
as an intelligence company.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:31 PM
To: scott stewart; Darryl O'Connor; 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'Peter Zeihan';
George Friedman; maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
Subject: Re: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
We need to sit down and consider this. Sources we can't use are useless.
Promiscuous use of sensitive sources is dangerous. This is an ongoing
dilemma of intelligence. Since we aren't journalists there may be ways to
deal with this. We need a policy. Stick, please put out your thoughts on
this and then we will follow up. In the meantime we fold sensitive
intelligence into analyses or sitreps on a case by case basis.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "scott stewart"
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2009 12:18:26 -0400
To: 'Darryl O'Connor'; 'Aaric
Eisenstein'; 'Peter
Zeihan'; 'George
Friedman';
Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
This is what I said to Aaric Monday. We really need to protect our people
and our sources.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Darryl O'Connor [mailto:oconnor@stratfor.com]
Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:05 PM
To: 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'scott stewart'; 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George
Friedman'; maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
my concern:
does the source have website access? let's assume so. would they
have the piss scared out of them to see their own words on our website?
enough piss scared out of them to not want to be a source anymore?
this is not really my area and not trying to horn in on someone else's
territory, but i thought it wouldn't hurt to ask the question.
over and out.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Aaric Eisenstein [mailto:eisenstein@stratfor.com]
Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 10:55 AM
To: 'scott stewart'; 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George Friedman';
maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
Subject: FW: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
Can we publish the Insight below - redacted on source of course - as a
test of the "raw" format as opposed to putting it into an article? It'll
be interesting to see what kind of feedback we get on the new format.
This Insight as good flavor in its raw form.
Aaric S. Eisenstein
Chief Innovation Officer
STRATFOR
512-744-4334 fax
aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com
Follow us on http://Twitter.com/stratfor
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Peter Zeihan [mailto:zeihan@stratfor.com]
Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 10:51 AM
To: Aaron Colvin
Cc: Secure List
Subject: Re: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
interesting -- they've put in a clod because they don't think he's smart
enough to do anything
would hate to be the clod
clods are disposable
Aaron Colvin wrote:
SOURCE CODE: IR2
PUBLICATION: Not Applicable
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Tehran-based freelance journalist/analyst who is
well plugged into the system
ATTRIBUTION: Not Applicable
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable
DISTRIBUTION: Secure
SOURCE HANDLER: Kamran
I think the composition is very interesting. Jalili is no seasoned
diplomat but he is someone both SL and Sepah could trust since his lower
intellectual and political stature makes it less likely that he shows
any independent streaks on tactical matters-- as someone like Larijani
could have. The other two are career diplomats-technocrats with
extensive knowledge of their respective fields. Jalili needs them for
advice on legal niceties and for general political considerations. The
third negotiator's presence is in indeed interesting. As you have
noted, the presence of someone from the Minstry of Economic Affairs
serves to show Iran's seriouness in the talks. But it is just for the
show as Iran knows that the talks will fail.
Quality, Status and Mystique I think showing too much of our inner
workings devalues our Mystique. People don't know how we collect our
intelligence and that's one of the cool, mysterious things about STRATFOR.
Seeing raw intelligence come in would be cool for a few weeks but then it
would become another expected product and we lose our mystique a little on
source collection.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Meredith Friedman
Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2009 9:55 AM
To: scott stewart; friedman@att.blackberry.net; 'Darryl O'Connor'; 'Aaric
Eisenstein'; 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George Friedman';
maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
Thanks, Stick, for laying this out. I have to say I support your position
on this. As you mentioned yesterday, our sources would be talking to
Reuters or other news organizations if they wanted their ideas published
directly (even as anonymous sources) but they are not - they are talking
to us because they know we protect not only their identity but use what
they say in a careful way in our analysis or as sitreps.
On the reverse side, if we blacked out every category of our source
descriptions and coding it would be silly and make people wonder if we
weren't making them up ourselves. We already show a lot of leg by sharing
our internal intelligence guidance with our customers - that is sexy and
something that makes us unique. I agree we would lose some of our best
sources for intelligence if we began publishing what they send us in raw
format no matter how carefully we try to disguise their identity.
Meredith
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: scott stewart [mailto:scott.stewart@stratfor.com]
Sent: Thursday, October 01, 2009 9:43 AM
To: friedman@att.blackberry.net; 'Darryl O'Connor'; 'Aaric Eisenstein';
'Peter Zeihan'; 'George Friedman'; maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'; 'Meredith Friedman'
Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
OK, I have taken 24 hours to relax, calm down and think about this
concept.
Here are my thoughts.
1) This may be a decent marketing idea, but in my opinion it is a terrible
intelligence idea. In addition to the point I made yesterday about many of
our sources not wanting to be paraded into the spotlight, it is also
important to remember that we have sources in places like Iran, Syria,
China and Russia who could be traced if we allowed that much of their
writings and information to be published in raw form. Allowing an
intelligence service to isolate all the source reporting coming from that
country would be very attractive to them and they would certainly attempt
to determine who we are talking to, and who is talking to us, on a regular
basis.
We have an ethical responsible to do our best to protect our people - and
from a purely selfish perspective if one of our people is identified and
then whacked, arrested, or cowed by the authorities into no longer
reporting, we can quickly lose an asset that have taken us years to
develop. This will hurt our publishing operations, and will not be
sustainable in the long run. We need to protect our most valuable -- and
in most cases, our most sensitive -- sources for the future of the
company.
2) We could do something like this with less-sensitive sources who agree
to be published directly, but those less-sensitive sources will lack the
sex appeal that Aaric is looking for and that will make this a rather
bland product offering.
3) Based on 1 and 2, it is my recommendation that we continue to handle
insight as it is. That is, using it to inform our analysis and to make
sure our published work remains very strong, and our CIS customers stay
informed. We can also continue to use critical pieces of insight directly
as the basis for sitreps.
I have calmed down from yesterday, but I still feel very strongly that
continuing to handle insight as we do is the best course of action for us
as an intelligence company.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: George Friedman [mailto:friedman@att.blackberry.net]
Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:31 PM
To: scott stewart; Darryl O'Connor; 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'Peter Zeihan';
George Friedman; maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
Subject: Re: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
We need to sit down and consider this. Sources we can't use are useless.
Promiscuous use of sensitive sources is dangerous. This is an ongoing
dilemma of intelligence. Since we aren't journalists there may be ways to
deal with this. We need a policy. Stick, please put out your thoughts on
this and then we will follow up. In the meantime we fold sensitive
intelligence into analyses or sitreps on a case by case basis.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "scott stewart"
Date: Wed, 30 Sep 2009 12:18:26 -0400
To: 'Darryl O'Connor'
Eisenstein'
Zeihan'
Friedman'
Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
This is what I said to Aaric Monday. We really need to protect our people
and our sources.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Darryl O'Connor [mailto:oconnor@stratfor.com]
Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 12:05 PM
To: 'Aaric Eisenstein'; 'scott stewart'; 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George
Friedman'; maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
Subject: RE: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
my concern:
does the source have website access? let's assume so. would they
have the piss scared out of them to see their own words on our website?
enough piss scared out of them to not want to be a source anymore?
this is not really my area and not trying to horn in on someone else's
territory, but i thought it wouldn't hurt to ask the question.
over and out.
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Aaric Eisenstein [mailto:eisenstein@stratfor.com]
Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 10:55 AM
To: 'scott stewart'; 'Peter Zeihan'; 'George Friedman';
maverick.fisher@stratfor.com
Cc: 'Grant Perry'; 'Richard Parker'; 'darryl'
Subject: FW: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
Can we publish the Insight below - redacted on source of course - as a
test of the "raw" format as opposed to putting it into an article? It'll
be interesting to see what kind of feedback we get on the new format.
This Insight as good flavor in its raw form.
Aaric S. Eisenstein
Chief Innovation Officer
STRATFOR
512-744-4334 fax
aaric.eisenstein@stratfor.com
Follow us on http://Twitter.com/stratfor
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Peter Zeihan [mailto:zeihan@stratfor.com]
Sent: Wednesday, September 30, 2009 10:51 AM
To: Aaron Colvin
Cc: Secure List
Subject: Re: INSIGHT - IRAN - Delegation to Geneva - IR2
interesting -- they've put in a clod because they don't think he's smart
enough to do anything
would hate to be the clod
clods are disposable
Aaron Colvin wrote:
SOURCE CODE: IR2
PUBLICATION: Not Applicable
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Tehran-based freelance journalist/analyst who is
well plugged into the system
ATTRIBUTION: Not Applicable
SOURCE RELIABILITY: B
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
SPECIAL HANDLING: Not Applicable
DISTRIBUTION: Secure
SOURCE HANDLER: Kamran
I think the composition is very interesting. Jalili is no seasoned
diplomat but he is someone both SL and Sepah could trust since his lower
intellectual and political stature makes it less likely that he shows
any independent streaks on tactical matters-- as someone like Larijani
could have. The other two are career diplomats-technocrats with
extensive knowledge of their respective fields. Jalili needs them for
advice on legal niceties and for general political considerations. The
third negotiator's presence is in indeed interesting. As you have
noted, the presence of someone from the Minstry of Economic Affairs
serves to show Iran's seriouness in the talks. But it is just for the
show as Iran knows that the talks will fail.
On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
INSIGHT - CHINA - RIO ESPIONAGE - CN65 [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: Australia, China: Accusations of Espionage
| Email-ID | 966303 |
|---|---|
| Date | 2009-07-10 05:05:33 |
| From | richmond@stratfor.com |
| To | analysts@stratfor.com |
| List-Name | analysts@stratfor.com |
So my Aussie intelligence source that I was so worried about because he
stayed in China incommunicado for over a week decides to get in touch
with me via STRATFOR! Ha. Well anyways, I am resending this as insight
in case not everyone picks this up. This is very important and wish
like hell we woulda got it this morning before I wrote up the CSM. I
guess we can always update next week or do a stand-alone piece - thoughts?
SOURCE: CN65
ATTRIBUTION: Former Australian State Senator
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Source is well-connected politically, militarily
and economically. He has become a
private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SPECIAL HANDLING: None
>
> Hey Jen,
>
> Just back in Australia, but still only in Perth. Won't get back to
> Brisbane until 1000 GMT on 10th July. Happy to take a call after
> that. You may have missed a related issue on this story.
>
> The day in arrived in China the media announced proposed changes to the
> laws on state secrets. These include increasing the range of things
> which
> could constitute revealing or stealing "state secrets". Of course
> stealing
> them, or deliberately revealing them, can attract a death sentence. The
> exact details are contained in clippings, which are in my checked
> luggage. I will get them once I get home.
>
> In my talks, the Chinese officials were turning themselves inside out
> over
> Chinalco, and the line given in the official media curiously blamed the
> Opposition. The reason for this is simply that the Government and Rio
> don't want to admit that they got it seriously wrong. You recall my
> comment on the clipping you showed me? The problem is that they tried to
> push their bargaining position too hard instead of revising the deal to
> make it more immediately palatable.
>
> Interestingly, the arrests come not just during the protracted iron ore
> negotiations, but on the very weekend that Rio successfully concluded its
> rights issue to replace most of the cash they were to get from
> Chinalco. I
> think these guys were really pissed off by that, and wanted to do
> something
> to lash out at Rio. Also, they may have figured that arresting these
> guys
> would lead to a capitulation by Rio at the negotiating table.
>
> Rudd is copping a flogging for failing to say anything at all on the
> matter, even though the Australian has been in the bag for four days.
> You
> need to see Greg Sheridan's article in the Australian today. Also, you
> have a fan at the Australian Fin Review, as Stratfor commentary made up
> half the back page in the Chanticleer column there.
>
> I got out of China a week late, and was very worried for myself for a
> week, but all turned out okay.
>
> Hope all is well at your end.
>
> Bill
>
>
> Source:
> http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090708_australia_china_accusations_espionage
stayed in China incommunicado for over a week decides to get in touch
with me via STRATFOR! Ha. Well anyways, I am resending this as insight
in case not everyone picks this up. This is very important and wish
like hell we woulda got it this morning before I wrote up the CSM. I
guess we can always update next week or do a stand-alone piece - thoughts?
SOURCE: CN65
ATTRIBUTION: Former Australian State Senator
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Source is well-connected politically, militarily
and economically. He has become a
private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SPECIAL HANDLING: None
>
> Hey Jen,
>
> Just back in Australia, but still only in Perth. Won't get back to
> Brisbane until 1000 GMT on 10th July. Happy to take a call after
> that. You may have missed a related issue on this story.
>
> The day in arrived in China the media announced proposed changes to the
> laws on state secrets. These include increasing the range of things
> which
> could constitute revealing or stealing "state secrets". Of course
> stealing
> them, or deliberately revealing them, can attract a death sentence. The
> exact details are contained in clippings, which are in my checked
> luggage. I will get them once I get home.
>
> In my talks, the Chinese officials were turning themselves inside out
> over
> Chinalco, and the line given in the official media curiously blamed the
> Opposition. The reason for this is simply that the Government and Rio
> don't want to admit that they got it seriously wrong. You recall my
> comment on the clipping you showed me? The problem is that they tried to
> push their bargaining position too hard instead of revising the deal to
> make it more immediately palatable.
>
> Interestingly, the arrests come not just during the protracted iron ore
> negotiations, but on the very weekend that Rio successfully concluded its
> rights issue to replace most of the cash they were to get from
> Chinalco. I
> think these guys were really pissed off by that, and wanted to do
> something
> to lash out at Rio. Also, they may have figured that arresting these
> guys
> would lead to a capitulation by Rio at the negotiating table.
>
> Rudd is copping a flogging for failing to say anything at all on the
> matter, even though the Australian has been in the bag for four days.
> You
> need to see Greg Sheridan's article in the Australian today. Also, you
> have a fan at the Australian Fin Review, as Stratfor commentary made up
> half the back page in the Chanticleer column there.
>
> I got out of China a week late, and was very worried for myself for a
> week, but all turned out okay.
>
> Hope all is well at your end.
>
> Bill
>
>
> Source:
> http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090708_australia_china_accusations_espionage
On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
Re: INSIGHT - CHINA - RIO ESPIONAGE - CN65 [Analytical & Intelligence Comments] RE: Australia, China: Accusations of Espionage
| Email-ID | 970494 |
|---|---|
| Date | 2009-07-10 05:56:18 |
| From | richmond@stratfor.com |
| To | analysts@stratfor.com |
| List-Name | analysts@stratfor.com |
In this piece he mentions that the Chinese always target a Chinese foreign
national. That is what I got from my sources and from all the research we
did on other cases seems to be exclusively the case. I did not come
across one westerner without Chinese decent that was ever implicated in
such a case. Chinese is Chinese no matter what your passport says.
Matthew Gertken wrote:
Here's the Greg Sheridan article Jen's source mentions. It isn't
brilliant or anything, but it pretty well captures the anger in
Australia right now. And you have to admit, he's got a point. This was a
really baldfaced move by China and this article is an example of the
enormous domestic pressure that must be coming to bear on Rudd.
Big risk in nasty business
Greg Sheridan, Foreign editor | July 10, 2009
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25759154-5013460,00.html
Article from: The Australian
THE arrest and detention in Shanghai of senior Australian Rio Tinto
executive Stern Hu represents a grave crisis in Australia's relationship
with China.
It is a serious miscalculation by Beijing, and threatens to do lasting
harm to China's interests, not only in Australia, but throughout the
Western world.
Rio Tinto is one of the biggest mining companies in the world. Recently
it has earned the ire of official China (China Inc, as it's sometimes
described) in two ways.
It has pulled out of a huge deal in which the wholly Chinese government
owned Chinalco was going to buy nearly $20 billion of Rio. And it is
involved in tense negotiations over iron ore prices.
And now Rio's number two man in China, a Chinese Australian, and three
of his Chinese employees, are in custody, ludicrously on suspicion of
espionage and stealing Chinese state secrets.
Often when the Chinese state is under stress it reverts to Cold War
rhetoric and indeed Cold War impulses.
But really, to arrest a senior Rio executive for espionage? In 2009?
This surely is 30 years out of date.
These arrests always tend to be of ethnic Chinese, no matter what their
citizenship, as though Beijing does not recognise the foreign
nationality of anyone of Chinese blood.
But if Australian executives cannot have difficult business dealings and
negotiations in China without being arrested, this is a grievous
development.
The story has been reported widely internationally, on various forms of
media including CNN and Bloomberg.
Rio is a giant in the mining world. If Chinese authorities capriciously
detain executives from companies such as Rio, what lessons will the
international business community draw from this?
Most of all, however, this is a crisis for the Rudd government. There is
an air of contempt in the way the Chinese authorities have failed to
respond to Australian government requests for information and for
consular access to MrHu until today.
What does the much touted Australia-China relationship add up to if
Beijing treats Canberra with such conspicuous discourtesy and
indifference? Or, more likely, are the Chinese deliberately sending a
message? If so, it's a chilling message.
If the Rudd government cannot secure Mr Hu's release within a few days,
it will be seen as having zero influence with Beijing.
Kevin Rudd's ambition to be a "zhengyou" to China, a good friend who can
tell even unpleasant truths, will be torn to shreds.
If the Rudd government cannot resolve this matter quickly, then every
positive thing it ever says about its relations with Beijing will not be
worth the hot air they take to say.
The frequent talk of a special relationship between Australia and China
will be seen as fatuous sentimentality.
But the Chinese are risking serious interests as well.
Their action against Mr Hu greatly strengthens those such as Nationals
Senate leader Barnaby Joyce who argue against any strategic partnership
between Australia and China, while China's many apologists in Australia
will be deeply discredited.
This nasty business needs to be resolved very quickly.
Jennifer Richmond wrote:
So my Aussie intelligence source that I was so worried about because
he stayed in China incommunicado for over a week decides to get in
touch with me via STRATFOR! Ha. Well anyways, I am resending this as
insight in case not everyone picks this up. This is very important
and wish like hell we woulda got it this morning before I wrote up the
CSM. I guess we can always update next week or do a stand-alone piece
- thoughts?
SOURCE: CN65
ATTRIBUTION: Former Australian State Senator
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Source is well-connected politically, militarily
and economically. He has become a
private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SPECIAL HANDLING: None
Hey Jen,
Just back in Australia, but still only in Perth. Won't get back to
Brisbane until 1000 GMT on 10th July. Happy to take a call after
that. You may have missed a related issue on this story.
The day in arrived in China the media announced proposed changes to
the
laws on state secrets. These include increasing the range of things
which
could constitute revealing or stealing "state secrets". Of course
stealing
them, or deliberately revealing them, can attract a death sentence.
The
exact details are contained in clippings, which are in my checked
luggage. I will get them once I get home.
In my talks, the Chinese officials were turning themselves inside
out over
Chinalco, and the line given in the official media curiously blamed
the
Opposition. The reason for this is simply that the Government and
Rio
don't want to admit that they got it seriously wrong. You recall my
comment on the clipping you showed me? The problem is that they
tried to
push their bargaining position too hard instead of revising the deal
to
make it more immediately palatable.
Interestingly, the arrests come not just during the protracted iron
ore
negotiations, but on the very weekend that Rio successfully
concluded its
rights issue to replace most of the cash they were to get from
Chinalco. I
think these guys were really pissed off by that, and wanted to do
something
to lash out at Rio. Also, they may have figured that arresting
these guys
would lead to a capitulation by Rio at the negotiating table.
Rudd is copping a flogging for failing to say anything at all on the
matter, even though the Australian has been in the bag for four
days. You
need to see Greg Sheridan's article in the Australian today. Also,
you
have a fan at the Australian Fin Review, as Stratfor commentary made
up
half the back page in the Chanticleer column there.
I got out of China a week late, and was very worried for myself for
a
week, but all turned out okay.
Hope all is well at your end.
Bill
Source:
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090708_australia_china_accusations_espionage
national. That is what I got from my sources and from all the research we
did on other cases seems to be exclusively the case. I did not come
across one westerner without Chinese decent that was ever implicated in
such a case. Chinese is Chinese no matter what your passport says.
Matthew Gertken wrote:
Here's the Greg Sheridan article Jen's source mentions. It isn't
brilliant or anything, but it pretty well captures the anger in
Australia right now. And you have to admit, he's got a point. This was a
really baldfaced move by China and this article is an example of the
enormous domestic pressure that must be coming to bear on Rudd.
Big risk in nasty business
Greg Sheridan, Foreign editor | July 10, 2009
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25759154-5013460,00.html
Article from: The Australian
THE arrest and detention in Shanghai of senior Australian Rio Tinto
executive Stern Hu represents a grave crisis in Australia's relationship
with China.
It is a serious miscalculation by Beijing, and threatens to do lasting
harm to China's interests, not only in Australia, but throughout the
Western world.
Rio Tinto is one of the biggest mining companies in the world. Recently
it has earned the ire of official China (China Inc, as it's sometimes
described) in two ways.
It has pulled out of a huge deal in which the wholly Chinese government
owned Chinalco was going to buy nearly $20 billion of Rio. And it is
involved in tense negotiations over iron ore prices.
And now Rio's number two man in China, a Chinese Australian, and three
of his Chinese employees, are in custody, ludicrously on suspicion of
espionage and stealing Chinese state secrets.
Often when the Chinese state is under stress it reverts to Cold War
rhetoric and indeed Cold War impulses.
But really, to arrest a senior Rio executive for espionage? In 2009?
This surely is 30 years out of date.
These arrests always tend to be of ethnic Chinese, no matter what their
citizenship, as though Beijing does not recognise the foreign
nationality of anyone of Chinese blood.
But if Australian executives cannot have difficult business dealings and
negotiations in China without being arrested, this is a grievous
development.
The story has been reported widely internationally, on various forms of
media including CNN and Bloomberg.
Rio is a giant in the mining world. If Chinese authorities capriciously
detain executives from companies such as Rio, what lessons will the
international business community draw from this?
Most of all, however, this is a crisis for the Rudd government. There is
an air of contempt in the way the Chinese authorities have failed to
respond to Australian government requests for information and for
consular access to MrHu until today.
What does the much touted Australia-China relationship add up to if
Beijing treats Canberra with such conspicuous discourtesy and
indifference? Or, more likely, are the Chinese deliberately sending a
message? If so, it's a chilling message.
If the Rudd government cannot secure Mr Hu's release within a few days,
it will be seen as having zero influence with Beijing.
Kevin Rudd's ambition to be a "zhengyou" to China, a good friend who can
tell even unpleasant truths, will be torn to shreds.
If the Rudd government cannot resolve this matter quickly, then every
positive thing it ever says about its relations with Beijing will not be
worth the hot air they take to say.
The frequent talk of a special relationship between Australia and China
will be seen as fatuous sentimentality.
But the Chinese are risking serious interests as well.
Their action against Mr Hu greatly strengthens those such as Nationals
Senate leader Barnaby Joyce who argue against any strategic partnership
between Australia and China, while China's many apologists in Australia
will be deeply discredited.
This nasty business needs to be resolved very quickly.
Jennifer Richmond wrote:
So my Aussie intelligence source that I was so worried about because
he stayed in China incommunicado for over a week decides to get in
touch with me via STRATFOR! Ha. Well anyways, I am resending this as
insight in case not everyone picks this up. This is very important
and wish like hell we woulda got it this morning before I wrote up the
CSM. I guess we can always update next week or do a stand-alone piece
- thoughts?
SOURCE: CN65
ATTRIBUTION: Former Australian State Senator
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Source is well-connected politically, militarily
and economically. He has become a
private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
PUBLICATION: Yes
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SPECIAL HANDLING: None
Hey Jen,
Just back in Australia, but still only in Perth. Won't get back to
Brisbane until 1000 GMT on 10th July. Happy to take a call after
that. You may have missed a related issue on this story.
The day in arrived in China the media announced proposed changes to
the
laws on state secrets. These include increasing the range of things
which
could constitute revealing or stealing "state secrets". Of course
stealing
them, or deliberately revealing them, can attract a death sentence.
The
exact details are contained in clippings, which are in my checked
luggage. I will get them once I get home.
In my talks, the Chinese officials were turning themselves inside
out over
Chinalco, and the line given in the official media curiously blamed
the
Opposition. The reason for this is simply that the Government and
Rio
don't want to admit that they got it seriously wrong. You recall my
comment on the clipping you showed me? The problem is that they
tried to
push their bargaining position too hard instead of revising the deal
to
make it more immediately palatable.
Interestingly, the arrests come not just during the protracted iron
ore
negotiations, but on the very weekend that Rio successfully
concluded its
rights issue to replace most of the cash they were to get from
Chinalco. I
think these guys were really pissed off by that, and wanted to do
something
to lash out at Rio. Also, they may have figured that arresting
these guys
would lead to a capitulation by Rio at the negotiating table.
Rudd is copping a flogging for failing to say anything at all on the
matter, even though the Australian has been in the bag for four
days. You
need to see Greg Sheridan's article in the Australian today. Also,
you
have a fan at the Australian Fin Review, as Stratfor commentary made
up
half the back page in the Chanticleer column there.
I got out of China a week late, and was very worried for myself for
a
week, but all turned out okay.
Hope all is well at your end.
Bill
Source:
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20090708_australia_china_accusations_espionage
On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
Re: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
| Email-ID | 5282628 |
|---|---|
| Date | 2009-06-02 17:21:18 |
| From | Anya.Alfano@stratfor.com |
| To | burton@stratfor.com, scott.stewart@stratfor.com, bart.mongoven@stratfor.com, burtonfb@att.blackberry.net |
Interesting, thanks Fred.
Fred Burton wrote:
The FBI has a classified investigation on PETA operatives. I'll see what
I can uncover.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "scott stewart"
Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2009 11:01:30 -0400
To: 'bart mongoven'
Subject: RE: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
Yeah, I'm not sure how that works now either. Bart, is this something
you guys can still help with?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, June 02, 2009 10:56 AM
To: Fred Burton; scott stewart
Subject: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
Coca-Cola just sent me a long list of questions regarding PETA/Animal
Activism and the upcoming Olympics in Vancouver--I've pasted the
questions below. I'm not entirely clear on how much we can task the
public policy group at this point--is there any guidance you can give me
on that front? Coke has asked for a short teleconference with one of
our analysts to discuss this issue--is that something I could ask Kathy,
Bart or Joe to do, or would that be off the table at this point? Stick,
are these questions something that you have a handle on, if we aren't
able to get info from the policy folks?
Any thoughts or guidance would be helpful. Thanks, Anya
Questions---
-- How many PETA supporters are there in Canada?
-- How many of these are inclined toward activism?
-- To what extent will US-based PETA supporters travel to Canada to
support activism?
-- What is PETA's methodology for planning and executing activism?
(Understanding this better would certainly help us to recognize
indicators should they appear.)
-- To what extent is PETA in Canada linked to PETA in the US or
elsewhere?
-- To what extent are the actions of PETA in one country controlled by
an oversight board/governing body?
-- To what extent could non-PETA hangers-on (such as anarchists or ALF
supporters) get involved in any protest activity?
Fred Burton wrote:
The FBI has a classified investigation on PETA operatives. I'll see what
I can uncover.
Sent via BlackBerry by AT&T
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "scott stewart"
Date: Tue, 2 Jun 2009 11:01:30 -0400
To: 'bart mongoven'
Subject: RE: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
Yeah, I'm not sure how that works now either. Bart, is this something
you guys can still help with?
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Anya Alfano [mailto:anya.alfano@stratfor.com]
Sent: Tuesday, June 02, 2009 10:56 AM
To: Fred Burton; scott stewart
Subject: Public Policy Question for Coca-Cola
Coca-Cola just sent me a long list of questions regarding PETA/Animal
Activism and the upcoming Olympics in Vancouver--I've pasted the
questions below. I'm not entirely clear on how much we can task the
public policy group at this point--is there any guidance you can give me
on that front? Coke has asked for a short teleconference with one of
our analysts to discuss this issue--is that something I could ask Kathy,
Bart or Joe to do, or would that be off the table at this point? Stick,
are these questions something that you have a handle on, if we aren't
able to get info from the policy folks?
Any thoughts or guidance would be helpful. Thanks, Anya
Questions---
-- How many PETA supporters are there in Canada?
-- How many of these are inclined toward activism?
-- To what extent will US-based PETA supporters travel to Canada to
support activism?
-- What is PETA's methodology for planning and executing activism?
(Understanding this better would certainly help us to recognize
indicators should they appear.)
-- To what extent is PETA in Canada linked to PETA in the US or
elsewhere?
-- To what extent are the actions of PETA in one country controlled by
an oversight board/governing body?
-- To what extent could non-PETA hangers-on (such as anarchists or ALF
supporters) get involved in any protest activity?
On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
Re: MORE Re: INSIGHT - CHINA/MONGOLIA - Uranium - CN65
| Email-ID | 5540308 |
|---|---|
| Date | 2009-07-29 15:31:43 |
| From | goodrich@stratfor.com |
| To | analysts@stratfor.com |
yea.. .there were quite a few indians at the mining conference that was
staying at my hotel.
they weren't so fun to talk to (sticks in the mud).
Reva Bhalla wrote:
the Indians have also been dealing heavily with the Kaz in getting their
uranium. when i was there last there was a giant Kaz delegation there
and my Indian defense contacts said all their talks centered on uranium
deals. not sure how much trouble the indians have had in seeing htese
deals through but i can find out
On Jul 29, 2009, at 8:13 AM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:
Kaz owns their own uranium with companies that just so happen to have
Kremlin-ers on the boards...
I even talked to Chinese companies about this while in Kaz and they
told me how hard it was to get into uranium there.
Rodger Baker wrote:
l can see if i can get any more info from the mongolians on this if
we are interested.
let me know
On Jul 29, 2009, at 8:01 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:
i thought the russians pretty much owned the uranium industry in
Kaz
is my info dated?
Jennifer Richmond wrote:
In response to my question: Do you mean to say that China is now
interested in Mongolia because they are possibly being blocked
by Russian interests in Kazakhstan?
No, the Chinese have pretty much wrapped up the uranium in
Kazakhstan, and now they are trying to secure uranium in
Mongolia as well. Interestingly, CNNC or its subsidiaries were
involved in both countries.
In China, the importation of uranium is controlled by the
central government. They have theoretically always done this,
but in the middle of last year they reiterated central control
of uranium imports. Effectively, most imports are either
undertaken by CNNC, China Guangdong, or Sino Steel (yes, that
last one is correct). There may be one other authorised
importer. All of this means that any uranium investment is more
centrally planned and controlled than any other outward
investment.
As for the Russians, I suspect they or the Americans may have
prodded the Mongolians to rebuff the Chinese after they took
their stake in Western Prospector. Alternatively, the
Mongolians may have chosen to do it on their own volition.
Either way, the Russians are feeling under pressure.
Antonia Colibasanu wrote:
SOURCE: CN65
ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government
and
natural resources
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former Australian Senator. Source is
well-connected politically, militarily and economically. He
has become a
private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2/3
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SPECIAL HANDLING: None
SOURCE HANDLER: Jen
CNNC (China National Nuclear Corporation) recently acquired a
majority stake in Western Prospector, whose sole project is
the Gurvanbulag Central deposit in Mongolia. This deposit is
actually covered by tenements in favour of three companies -
Western Prospector, Khan, and Laramide. My suspicion is that
the CNNC move on Western Prospector was the prelude to raids
both of the other companies, with a view to possible merger.
Laramide is particularly vulnerable, as the weak equity
market has constrained their ability to raise capital.
Laramide has projects in Australia, which are currently on
care & maintenance for this reason.
As you know, relations between China and Mongolia are strained
from time to time. The question is whether this has been
stoked by Russia, who would not have been happy with China
taking 70% of Kazatomprom, and other Kazakh uranium processing
assets earlier this year. Russia, in turn, is quietly trying
to get a foothold in Australian uranium exploration, which is
the first time this has happened.
In short, China's massive nuclear power expansion plan
requires significant amounts of uranium. This has led them to
try to secure uranium in Central Asia and Mongolia, which it
might consider in its sphere of influence. The problem is the
Russians have pretensions/expectations there also.
--
Lauren Goodrich
Director of Analysis
Senior Eurasia Analyst
STRATFOR
T:
F: 512.744.4334
lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com
--
Lauren Goodrich
Director of Analysis
Senior Eurasia Analyst
STRATFOR
T:
F: 512.744.4334
lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com
staying at my hotel.
they weren't so fun to talk to (sticks in the mud).
Reva Bhalla wrote:
the Indians have also been dealing heavily with the Kaz in getting their
uranium. when i was there last there was a giant Kaz delegation there
and my Indian defense contacts said all their talks centered on uranium
deals. not sure how much trouble the indians have had in seeing htese
deals through but i can find out
On Jul 29, 2009, at 8:13 AM, Lauren Goodrich wrote:
Kaz owns their own uranium with companies that just so happen to have
Kremlin-ers on the boards...
I even talked to Chinese companies about this while in Kaz and they
told me how hard it was to get into uranium there.
Rodger Baker wrote:
l can see if i can get any more info from the mongolians on this if
we are interested.
let me know
On Jul 29, 2009, at 8:01 AM, Peter Zeihan wrote:
i thought the russians pretty much owned the uranium industry in
Kaz
is my info dated?
Jennifer Richmond wrote:
In response to my question: Do you mean to say that China is now
interested in Mongolia because they are possibly being blocked
by Russian interests in Kazakhstan?
No, the Chinese have pretty much wrapped up the uranium in
Kazakhstan, and now they are trying to secure uranium in
Mongolia as well. Interestingly, CNNC or its subsidiaries were
involved in both countries.
In China, the importation of uranium is controlled by the
central government. They have theoretically always done this,
but in the middle of last year they reiterated central control
of uranium imports. Effectively, most imports are either
undertaken by CNNC, China Guangdong, or Sino Steel (yes, that
last one is correct). There may be one other authorised
importer. All of this means that any uranium investment is more
centrally planned and controlled than any other outward
investment.
As for the Russians, I suspect they or the Americans may have
prodded the Mongolians to rebuff the Chinese after they took
their stake in Western Prospector. Alternatively, the
Mongolians may have chosen to do it on their own volition.
Either way, the Russians are feeling under pressure.
Antonia Colibasanu wrote:
SOURCE: CN65
ATTRIBUTION: Australian contact connected with the government
and
natural resources
SOURCE DESCRIPTION: Former Australian Senator. Source is
well-connected politically, militarily and economically. He
has become a
private businessman helping foreign companies with M&As
PUBLICATION: Yes but with no attribution
SOURCE RELIABILITY: A
ITEM CREDIBILITY: 2/3
DISTRIBUTION: Analysts
SPECIAL HANDLING: None
SOURCE HANDLER: Jen
CNNC (China National Nuclear Corporation) recently acquired a
majority stake in Western Prospector, whose sole project is
the Gurvanbulag Central deposit in Mongolia. This deposit is
actually covered by tenements in favour of three companies -
Western Prospector, Khan, and Laramide. My suspicion is that
the CNNC move on Western Prospector was the prelude to raids
both of the other companies, with a view to possible merger.
Laramide is particularly vulnerable, as the weak equity
market has constrained their ability to raise capital.
Laramide has projects in Australia, which are currently on
care & maintenance for this reason.
As you know, relations between China and Mongolia are strained
from time to time. The question is whether this has been
stoked by Russia, who would not have been happy with China
taking 70% of Kazatomprom, and other Kazakh uranium processing
assets earlier this year. Russia, in turn, is quietly trying
to get a foothold in Australian uranium exploration, which is
the first time this has happened.
In short, China's massive nuclear power expansion plan
requires significant amounts of uranium. This has led them to
try to secure uranium in Central Asia and Mongolia, which it
might consider in its sphere of influence. The problem is the
Russians have pretensions/expectations there also.
--
Lauren Goodrich
Director of Analysis
Senior Eurasia Analyst
STRATFOR
T:
F: 512.744.4334
lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com
--
Lauren Goodrich
Director of Analysis
Senior Eurasia Analyst
STRATFOR
T:
F: 512.744.4334
lauren.goodrich@stratfor.com
www.stratfor.com
On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
Re: Former Spanish PM Azner
| Email-ID | 77532 |
|---|---|
| Date | 2010-11-17 00:44:52 |
| From | reva.bhalla@stratfor.com |
| To | analysts@stratfor.com |
Haha, I'm glad you noticed those gorgeous locks as well
Aznar could have been exaggerating the ETA in VZ stuff, but who knows
Sent from my iPhone
On Nov 16, 2010, at 6:35 PM, Reginald Thompson
wrote:
At least 20 camps? Pretty impressive. That's more than I've seen in OS,
where so far all they've been focusing on is the Guasdalito camp where
Cubillas was allegedly at, but it's quite possible all those former
etarras are spread out all over the place. I would he's a lot more open
about heaping criticisms on Chavez since I heard him speak at Trinity
back in 2004, where he referred to him as "an interesting man." My
brother has a picture of himself with Aznar at that event. Every time I
look at it I really do think, it's always his hair that I notice.....
-----------------
Reginald Thompson
Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741
OSINT
Stratfor
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Reva Bhalla"
To: "Analyst List"
Sent: Tuesday, November 16, 2010 5:26:21 PM
Subject: Former Spanish PM Azner
Wow, SeA+-or presidente is hardcore.. Way more extreme than even the
Israeli officials I've heard speak. He honestly believes that all
terrorists are the same and that nothing short of total war can defeat
them. He is adamantly against any kind of negotiation with terrorists
and criticizes France, Germany and others heavily in this regard. He
attributes French and German "weakness" on counterterrorism to their
larger Muslim populations. He said OBL's statement on retaking Andaluz
is all he heard and the Germans and French just didn't get it. He says
poverty has zero connection to terrorism and that developmental aid
policies are useless. On ETA, he said the ceasefires are just time
buying measures, nothing more. In Catalonia he says the regional govt
encourages Muslim immigration from Pakistan, Algeria, etc because they
can more easily linguistically integrate them as opposed to Spanish-
speaking immigrants. This is also where the most radical imams are in
the country. He also said ETA has at least 20 camps in Venezuela and
ggat farc and eta work with each other in training l, weapons, etc.
Overall, he's very ideological and hardline. Good reminder of the
personal role in poltics (though he also paid for that and is
embarassed by his loss)
Also, great hair.
Sent from my iPhone
Aznar could have been exaggerating the ETA in VZ stuff, but who knows
Sent from my iPhone
On Nov 16, 2010, at 6:35 PM, Reginald Thompson
At least 20 camps? Pretty impressive. That's more than I've seen in OS,
where so far all they've been focusing on is the Guasdalito camp where
Cubillas was allegedly at, but it's quite possible all those former
etarras are spread out all over the place. I would he's a lot more open
about heaping criticisms on Chavez since I heard him speak at Trinity
back in 2004, where he referred to him as "an interesting man." My
brother has a picture of himself with Aznar at that event. Every time I
look at it I really do think, it's always his hair that I notice.....
-----------------
Reginald Thompson
Cell: (011) 504 8990-7741
OSINT
Stratfor
----------------------------------------------------------------------
From: "Reva Bhalla"
To: "Analyst List"
Sent: Tuesday, November 16, 2010 5:26:21 PM
Subject: Former Spanish PM Azner
Wow, SeA+-or presidente is hardcore.. Way more extreme than even the
Israeli officials I've heard speak. He honestly believes that all
terrorists are the same and that nothing short of total war can defeat
them. He is adamantly against any kind of negotiation with terrorists
and criticizes France, Germany and others heavily in this regard. He
attributes French and German "weakness" on counterterrorism to their
larger Muslim populations. He said OBL's statement on retaking Andaluz
is all he heard and the Germans and French just didn't get it. He says
poverty has zero connection to terrorism and that developmental aid
policies are useless. On ETA, he said the ceasefires are just time
buying measures, nothing more. In Catalonia he says the regional govt
encourages Muslim immigration from Pakistan, Algeria, etc because they
can more easily linguistically integrate them as opposed to Spanish-
speaking immigrants. This is also where the most radical imams are in
the country. He also said ETA has at least 20 camps in Venezuela and
ggat farc and eta work with each other in training l, weapons, etc.
Overall, he's very ideological and hardline. Good reminder of the
personal role in poltics (though he also paid for that and is
embarassed by his loss)
Also, great hair.
Sent from my iPhone
On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods.
Re: Greetings from Washington, DC
| Email-ID | 92057 |
|---|---|
| Date | 2010-03-08 09:50:51 |
| From | reva.bhalla@stratfor.com |
| To | b.kenes@todayszaman.com |
Mr. Kenes,
My schedule changed again, and it looks like I will be available to meet
you at 3pm today. I will also have my assistant, Emre Dogru, with me.
Looking forward to meeting you.
Best,
Reva
Sent from my iPhone
On Mar 7, 2010, at 5:19 PM, BA 1/4lent KeneAA*
wrote:
Dear Miss. Bhalla,
I will be at the office at 3 pm on Monday. It will be a great pleasure
for me to have a cup of coffee with youa*|
If it is suitable for you, please confirm that you will visit our
officea*|
Best,
BA 1/4lent KeneAA*
Today's Zaman
Editor-in-Chief
Tel (212)
Faks (212)
E-posta b.kenes@todayszaman.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2010 7:32 PM
To: BA 1/4lent KeneAA*
Subject: Greetings from Washington, DC
Dear Mr. Kenes,
I met your colleague, Ali Aslan, last week in DC, where I am based as an
analyst for STRATFOR. I told him that I'll be in Istanbul this week and
he strongly recommended that I get in touch with you. If you are
available some time early in the week (Monday, the 8th, perhaps?) to
meet, please let me know. I've been working on Turkey issues for a while
and your publication does very important work. It would be great to sit
down and chat with you if you have some time.
All the best,
Reva Bhalla
Director of Analysis
STRATFOR
www.stratfor.com
Director of Analysis
Senior Analyst for Middle East, South Asia and Latin America
My schedule changed again, and it looks like I will be available to meet
you at 3pm today. I will also have my assistant, Emre Dogru, with me.
Looking forward to meeting you.
Best,
Reva
Sent from my iPhone
On Mar 7, 2010, at 5:19 PM, BA 1/4lent KeneAA*
wrote:
Dear Miss. Bhalla,
I will be at the office at 3 pm on Monday. It will be a great pleasure
for me to have a cup of coffee with youa*|
If it is suitable for you, please confirm that you will visit our
officea*|
Best,
BA 1/4lent KeneAA*
Today's Zaman
Editor-in-Chief
Tel (212)
Faks (212)
E-posta b.kenes@todayszaman.com
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
From: Reva Bhalla [mailto:reva.bhalla@stratfor.com]
Sent: Saturday, March 06, 2010 7:32 PM
To: BA 1/4lent KeneAA*
Subject: Greetings from Washington, DC
Dear Mr. Kenes,
I met your colleague, Ali Aslan, last week in DC, where I am based as an
analyst for STRATFOR. I told him that I'll be in Istanbul this week and
he strongly recommended that I get in touch with you. If you are
available some time early in the week (Monday, the 8th, perhaps?) to
meet, please let me know. I've been working on Turkey issues for a while
and your publication does very important work. It would be great to sit
down and chat with you if you have some time.
All the best,
Reva Bhalla
Director of Analysis
STRATFOR
www.stratfor.com
Director of Analysis
Senior Analyst for Middle East, South Asia and Latin America
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