Hezbollah failure in India and Iran’s price tag policy

Iran’s price tag policy Op-ed: Latest terror attacks likely an Iranian attempt to redraw the rules of play against Israel Ronen Bergman Published:  02.14.12, 12:22 / Israel Opinion

Following the assassination of one nuclear scientist in Tehran, I wrote that it doesn’t matter who was behind it – what matters is that the Iranians are convinced it was Israel’s Mossad. The only question that remained was when would they try to take their revenge, and now it’s happening.

In February 1992, Israel assassinated then-Hezbollah Director General Abbas Musawi. The operation was successful, yet drew a violent response by the Shiite group that included, among other things, the bombing of Israel’s embassy in Buenos Aires.


The rules of play between Israel and Hezbollah were redrafted: Targeting the organization’s soft underbelly would prompt attacks on Israel’s soft underbelly – Israeli missions and Jewish facilities worldwide.

This equation deterred Israel from trying to hit senior Hezbollah figures until the Second Lebanon War, when Director General Hassan Nasrallah became a target. In 2008, Hezbollah military chief Imad Mugniyah was assassinated in the heart of Damascus, by Mossad agents and other forces according to foreign reports.

The latest attacks constitute an Iranian attempt to again redraw the rules of play – just as Mugniyah did in the early 1990s when he sent his men to blow up the Israeli embassy in Argentina’s capital.

For now, Israel is winning

Hezbollah has vowed to avenge Mugniyah’s death “even if it takes 100 years” yet the latest events should not be isolated from recent developments in Iran. It is no wonder that the assassination of scientists – which delay the progress of Iran’s nuclear program and constitute great embarrassment for the regime in Tehran – are prompting the ayatollah regime to use the same modus operandi to attack Israel, which they believe is behind the assassinations.

The attack in India, where a motorcyclist attached an explosive device to a vehicle, was an (unsuccessful, thank God) attempt to imitate the modus operandi used to assassinate Iranian scientists.

The United States denied its involvement in the assassinations, thereby protecting its citizens against Iranian revenge. Israel did not respond, with the exception of a weak denial by PresidentShimon Peres. Moreover, some Israeli figures hinted on the subject, thereby possibly boosting Iran’s motivation to take revenge.


srael too should have issued a decisive denial. We don’t have to always be the strongest and bravest.

In the bottom line, the secret war attributed to Israel against Iran and Hezbollah continues in full force. For the time being, Israel is winning by knockout, but we should not underestimate the other side’s determination and capabilities. What we saw thus far may only be the beginning.

Ron Ben-Yishai Hezbollah failure in India Op-ed: Terror attacks in Delhi, Tbilisi attest to Hezbollah's lack of professionalism Published:  02.13.12, 19:31 / Israel Opinion

The bombing in New Delhi and the terror attack foiled in Tabilisi are almost certainly part of a series of Hezbollah attempts – facilitated by Iran – to avenge the assassination of Hezbollahmilitary chief Imad Mugniyah.


Mugniyah, who was the head of Hezbollah's military wing and a murderous terrorist, was killed by an explosive device planted in the headrest of the driver's seat of his jeep. Hezbollah blamed Israel for the assassination and its leaders, echoed by the Iranians, have publicly vowed to avenge his death.

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It is also likely that the bombs placed in Israeli diplomats' cars were meant to signal to Israel that its diplomats were not immune to the modus operandi used to eliminate Mugniyah.

Intent aside, the execution was far less successful than the Mugniyah assaination four years and three days ago in Damascus. The bomb placed, discovered and defused in a Georgia Embassy employee's car was a clear operational failure; both because that bomb was placed in the wrong person's car, and because it failed to go off or was found beforehand.


In both cases, the devices were supposed to be triggered either by a timer or via remote control. But even the New Delhi device, which did go off, attests to the terrorists' failure: The target was most likely the Israeli diplomat and not his wife. She luckily escaped with only minor injuries, indicating that the device was ill-placed.

Work of amateurs  

As for the identity of the perpetrators, they were probably not members of Hezbollah's special unit, or of Iran's Quds Force, but rather, locals belonging to the group's collaborator network.


To understand the situation in full, one must remember that only several weeks ago two major attempts to carry out terror attacks against Israeli targets were foiled – the first against Israeli tourists in Thailand and the second in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan.

Terror attack in India (Photo: AFP)

Those two attacks were orchestrated by experts and were prevented thanks to accurate intelligence. In both cases, the specialists were sent by Hezbollah and Iran: In Thailand the suspects were two Lebanese Hezbollah operatives – one of whom was caught and the other fled; and in Baku it was members of Iran's Quds Force who tried to recruit Azeris to assassinate the Israeli ambassador.


Those two attempts were preceded by at least five others over the past few years. Iran and Hezbollah eventually gave up on a flashy terror attack in favor of two simple ones, reminiscent of the kind used as payback in the underworld; simply because they could not get around the security and intelligence Israel – with the assistance foreign governments – has in place.

Security lapses?

That's the good news. The bad news is that Monday's attacks signal that neither Hezbollah nor the Iranians have any intention of shelving their plans for major revenge, that is, a high-casualty attack, as would befit vengeance for the elimination of an arch-terrorist like Mugniyah and the assassination of Iranian nuclear and missile scientists on the streets of Tehran.


At the same time, the attempted attacks attest to breaches and possibly even negligence in security arrangements at Israeli missions abroad. The fact that terrorists, and possibly non-professionals, managed to attach explosive devices to thevehicle of an Israeli diplomat attests to a grave security failure.


Such vehicle, even if it does not carry an Israeli flag, is marked with a diplomatic license plate bearing a number showing which embassy it belongs to. Hence, the perpetrators had no difficulty identifying the car, and that is a failure in and of itself.


In Tbilisi the situation is vaguer, and the failure may have taken place in securing the vicinity of the embassy. This could happen, as no human being can spot every detail during a patrol. However, this requires Israel as well as local authorities in countries hosting Israeli diplomatic missions to boost the level of security.